Should You Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop? What Spring 2026 Just Taught Johnson County Buyers

Every buyer who told me in January they’d “wait for rates to come down” got their wish — for about three weeks. Then it was gone. Spring 2026 is the cleanest lesson I’ve seen on why waiting for rates is a losing strategy.

What actually happened

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the 30-year fixed rate hit 6.01% on February 19 and 5.98% on February 26 — the first time under 6% since 2022. By March 19 it was 6.22%, and by April 2 it was 6.46%. The window was roughly three weeks wide. Buyers who were pre-approved, had their number, and were actively touring in February locked in. Buyers who were “waiting for rates” watched them go back up.

Why waiting usually backfires

• Nobody rings a bell at the bottom. Rates move weekly on data no one can forecast. You find out it was the low after it’s over.
• The dip brings the crowd. When rates drop, every sidelined buyer returns at once. Prices and competition rise, and the payment savings gets absorbed by a higher purchase price.
• You can’t refinance a house you didn’t buy. Buy the right home when it’s available; if rates fall later, refinance. Refinance activity more than doubled in the year leading into February 2026 precisely because buyers who acted earlier could take advantage.

What to do instead

Be ready before the dip, not after. That means pre-approval done, your true payment range mapped at today’s rate and a half-point either side (see how rates change what you can afford), and a shortlist of neighborhoods — Overland Park, Leawood, Olathe — so when a home and a rate line up, you move in days. I help clients structure exactly that, and negotiate seller-paid buydowns when the market allows, which can beat waiting for the market to hand you a lower rate.